CalcOS

Retirement Planner

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Probability of Success (Monte Carlo)
98.0%Projected · 99%
Good Standing
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Projected Nest Egg at Retirement$1,720,040
Sustainable Annual Drawdown (4% SWR)$68,802
Initial Retirement SWR3.49%
Sequence-of-Returns RiskImprove planning safety margin

Implement dynamic spending guardrails (e.g. cut withdrawals by 10% during bear market years).

Early market down years combined with high withdrawals can permanently damage compounding capital.

No Inflation Indexing PowerImprove planning safety margin

Enable inflation adjustment toggle to ensure purchasing power matches CPI growth.

Fixed withdrawals erode purchasing power to inflation over time.

Nest Egg Longevity Sensitivity MatrixWithdrawal vs Annual Return Rate
Withdrawal4.5%5.5%6.5%7.5%8.5%
$48,000.00SurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvives
$54,000.00SurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvives
$60,000.00SurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvives
$66,000.00SurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvives
$72,000.0088 Yrs OldSurvivesSurvivesSurvivesSurvives

* Displays years until depletion. 'Survives' indicates the portfolio outlives the full projection term.

Scenario Analysis Projections
ScenarioProfileProbability of Success (Monte Carlo)
Base Scenario
Default inputs and growth assumptions$$4,978,555
Conservative
Lower yield, higher inflation, haircutsDepletes at age 89
Optimistic
Favorable yield, lower inflation, growth$$15,402,796
Stress Test
Severe economic crash and high inflationDepletes at age 73

Educational estimate. Future investment returns are uncertain. Not financial advice.

InterpretationExcellent portfolio survival probability, showing high resilience to historical market downturns. Sequence-of-Returns Risk: Early market down years combined with high withdrawals can permanently damage compounding capital. No Inflation Indexing Power: Fixed withdrawals erode purchasing power to inflation over time.
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How to Use the Retirement Planner

Ensure your money outlives you with our Retirement Decumulation Planner. This advanced planning tool goes beyond simple safe withdrawal rates to simulate inflation indexing, effective tax rates, and the timing of Social Security or pension benefits. Use the scenario engine to stress-test your portfolio against market downturns, and discover actionable strategies to sustain your target lifestyle.

Input variables:
  • Scenario Mode: Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Current Age: Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Target Retirement Age: Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Life Expectancy: Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Starting Portfolio ($): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Monthly Contributions ($): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Current Annual Salary ($): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Employer Match Rate (%): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Salary Growth Rate (%): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Asset Allocation Profile: Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Desired Retirement Spending ($/yr): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Withdrawal Strategy: Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Flexible Spending Portion (%): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Effective Tax Rate (%): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Expected Inflation Rate (%): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Annual Social Security ($/yr): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Social Security Start Age: Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.
  • Other Pension / Annuity ($/yr): Bounded parameter in the mathematical model.

Retirement Decumulation Planner: Discrete Recurrence & Longevity Math

Master discrete recurrence drawdown modeling, inflation-adjusted spending trajectories, and longevity risk protection in retirement.

Read Full Guide →