Confidence Intervals

Executive Summary

A Confidence Interval (CI) is a range of values computed from sample statistics that is likely to contain the true population parameter. Rather than offering a single point estimate, it quantifies the margin of error and standard error to establish statistical confidence.

Key Takeaways
  • estimation ranges: A confidence interval is an estimated range of values likely to contain the true population parameter.
  • confidence level: The percentage (e.g., 90%, 95%, 99%) indicates the long-run probability of intervals capturing the parameter.
  • sample dimension: Larger sample sizes (n) reduce the standard error, producing narrower, more precise intervals.
Formula
CI = x̄ ± z* × (s / √n)

Confidence Interval Formula

Variable Glossary
SymbolMeaning & Description
CIConfidence Interval range
Sample Mean
z*Critical value based on confidence level
sSample Standard Deviation
nSample Size
Step-by-Step Worked Example
1. Mapped Variables
Sample Mean (x̄)
100
Standard Deviation (s)
s15
Sample Size (n)
n30
Confidence Level
95%
2. Equation Substitution
Equation with standard inputs
CI = 100 ± 1.96 × (15 / √30)
3. Calculation Steps
Step 1: Calculate Standard Error (SE)

SE = s / √n = 15 / √30 = 2.7386

Step 2: Calculate Margin of Error (E)

E = z* × SE = 1.96 × 2.7386 = 5.3677

Step 3: Resolve Interval limits

Lower = 100 - 5.3677 = 94.6323. Upper = 100 + 5.3677 = 105.3677. CI = [94.6323, 105.3677]

Final Resolved 95% Confidence Interval[94.6323, 105.3677]
Live Simulation

Confidence Interval Calculator Sandbox

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Sample Mean (x̄)100
Standard Deviation (s)15
Sample Size (n)30
Calculating...
Common Mistakes to Avoid

Misinterpreting the Probability: Saying there is a 95% chance the true population mean lies inside the *calculated* interval is incorrect. The true mean is a fixed value. The correct interpretation is that 95% of similarly constructed sample intervals will contain the true population mean.

Frequently Asked Questions
Interactive Tool

Confidence Interval Calculator

Calculate the confidence interval for a sample mean with standard deviation and size bounds.

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